Another Scary Online-Only News Business Plan

Earlier this week, All Things Digital at The Wall Street Journal posted an interesting spreadsheet that tried to answer the question: What would your P&L look like with a 20-person local online-only news site?

Mark Josephson of local content aggregator Outside.in, the author of the spreadsheet, concluded that with very aggressive traffic assumptions, lots of help from third-party sites, and most inventory filled as remnant space by ad networks, you could have a margin of over 40%. Not bad. However, the fact is it’s a pretty small business overall — $6 million in revenue total, and only $1.4 million of that sold locally by a sales staff.

You could argue about some of the assumptions (especially what look like optimistic traffic numbers), but the fact is, Josephson is right. If you are building a local online news business from scratch, and you are only thinking about selling traditional banner inventory as your revenue source, any spreadsheet you do will look much like his.

Here’s the question: If you had a site like the one in the spreadsheet, with 40 million monthly pageviews, that would mean you have to be in a fairly large city (Dallas maybe? the local news site there probably has about this traffic level). If you were in a city that big, with that visible a site, why would you settle for $1.4 million in local ad revenue, when the market of local ad dollars is so much larger? Why have a local sales force, if all they can sell is banners?

Local advertising spending overall is down recently, like everything else. But everyone I’ve spoken to who has tried to sell to local advertisers recently tells me that even now, they are more than willing to try new opportunities if they’re creatively packaged and affordable. They may not want to be in the local metro daily (since it’s probably declining in readership, drab, and overpriced). But they still need to generate customers. They’re willing to try everything from Web ads to local weeklies, coupon books, event sponsorships, e-mail marketing, merchant directories, SEM. If you want a chance at a serious and prosperous local media company, you’ll need more than a busy Web site — you’ll have to build up a much richer range of channels and solutions for advertisers.

The opportunity is there for a local media company to be the authority on how to target customers in that market, via whatever channels local merchants want, whether it’s print, online, event sponsorships, e-mail, or access to a deep and proprietary local marketing database. Not that it’s easy to do, but it’s the only way to get away from the “little business in a huge market” suggested by the Josephson spreadsheet.